Making Good Decisions
How do people make decisions? How do people make good decisions?
When it comes to decision making, we are entering in the realm of the future. We make decisions about the future. We don’t make decisions about what happened already. We always make decisions about what we will do or think. So figuring out how people make decisions is kind of like figuring out what will happen in the future.
By definition, future is unpredictable. Therefore, making decisions should make you anxious.
There are a lot of unknown factors to consider when it comes to making decisions. And, perhaps, it’s this uncertainty that makes people anxious about decisions.
So to make a good decision, we have to something about the unforeseeable future. We have to learn to be comfortable with uncertain future.
In Smarter Faster Better, Charles Duhigg suggests that we should think in terms of probability.
The future is not set in stone. We can’t predict what is unpredictable. So if you are trying to make a decision based on certainty, you will surely feel anxious. However, if we adopt probabilistic thinking, we can reduce the level of anxiety. Instead of getting rid of the doubts and unpredictability, probabilistic mindset lets us live with them.
For example, instead of asking, “Are you sure this will happen or that will happen?” we can ask, “How probable are you of this happening or that happening? What percentage would you say is this or that to happen? What are the variables that may increase or decrease the probability of this or that event?” By asking these questions, you can divert from the either or mindset. Instead you will be able to juggle multiple probable futures and options. When you can keep in mind several likely scenarios, you can make decisions with probabilities and not with certainty.
Remember. You don’t have to know the future 100% correctly in order to make the right decision.
To make a good decision, you need to make a good prediction. And you can make a good prediction when you pay attention to both good and bad news, and thus, to various future options.
May the odds be ever in your favor!
